general supernatural exploration - part 1

[Mr X]

j,

to be honest i dont belief in random number generators being psychic.

it is interesting to think that the rng had some sentient quality and it knew. lots of things are interesting. i would be interest what the guessed number of yourself or merlin would of been. it would be interested to hear your thoughts on anything.

general supernatural exploration is fine, and i stand by the question "how do we explore the supernatural".
it is untrue that that i generated numbers in order to get more participants. i just did it for the participants that are present. i am aware of the size of f4. it is true i would love to know all the thoughts of tosk and merlin and j, i am realistically aware that they are holding back. how hard it is to say if you belief in god or not. apparently too hard. in an simple gated system, dont have to put everything on the table at once, still too hard.

strangely, i am not weirded out by the guesses of g.
i dont know why. some things spook me, but these numbers didnt. 2 and 37 were curious, when you mentioned the adding up sums, there was some minor wave of excitement. aside from that i felt nothing. i do agree it worked out rather well, but i think we view things differently.

g was also the person interested in the holding pattern. i have typed and deleted many following lines to the previous sentance. so i will just say, nothing.

my thinking is that g is pdc (pretty dam cool).

your assessment of going back to random.org is correct. 45 out of 100. no way of proving. it was just and casual mention.

x.

[ju4o]

Interesting.  Still borderline incredible, if I've understood you correctly, which of course is not sure.  Could you possibly clarify, at what point did the rng generate 45?  I mean, relative to the following snippets of conversation:

(1) G (post #41) Today's guess is the number 45, and 14 for the bonus ball.

(2) X (post #43) 45 and 14, no dice.

(3) G (post #44) The way the number was "psychically communicated" to me was 4-5 (I'll explain later). Are 4 or 5 a number?

(4) X (post #46) g, i am interested in the 4-5 story. 4 or 5 are not one of the numerals. still interested in the story.

(5) X (post #53) last time i went to that site was to generate the numbers, first time back to confirm it was the site, i checked it was working, 45

Another point would be if you could fill in some more detail for

(post #46) they mention some numbers as part of their looking. those numbers are in the forum4 random numbers. the experience is disconcerting due to the extreme unusualness. just and sync. worth mention only for high weirdness.

it's not clear if this story is literally true or just an example of the kind of thing which can happen, but if the story is literally true it would be interesting if you could say which numbers they mentioned.

[Mr G]

This should put an interesting twist on things: I actually dreamed of numbers. I wont bore you with details, mostly because I can't remember any.

Apparently, my unconscious mind picked:

2
12
15
30

If I had to pick, I wouldn't have chosen 2 or 12, since I've already used them before.

Edit: Oh, you haven't picked them yet... Just as well. 30 already heavily represented.

[Mr G]

Well this is rather embarrassing on two fronts, simply proving how uncool I really am. I forgot X said he hadn't picked the numbers yet, and then had a dreaming revelation that re-picked a bunch of numbers from memory. I do apologize, and look forward to further experiments. To make up for my silliness, I hope to brighten up your Friday by sharing this most amazing free energy device that you'll never believe actually exists and which scientists hate and at which you shall surely stand astounded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A25FRpkbDxU

Miffion accomplifhed.

[Mr X]

hello,

j, the exact position of 45 is, the rng generated the number 45 within and hour or two before posting  (5) X (post #53). the time delay is due to messing around with proxy/vpn stuff that day, the rng didnt work at first (it would load forever), and when it did load, 45. i mentioned it due to the obvious reasons, points (1 2 3 4).

g, that is very funny. you went off too early. picking the numbers before they have been picked seems as good and strategy as any. if you do, dont say them yet. dreaming is and interested tactic, i can assure you i wont be picking through that method.
round 2 has not been picked yet. i need and few days to look into encryption. who is to say if it will be 4 numbers this round. in round 2 there is the calender month of june 2015. the numbers will be chosen based on that, there is and visual reference this round, then marking them down on the calender. no powerball this time, but and image. not as many possible guesses either, 1 to 30. the number 15 has been removed from play.

j, with #46
that story is not literally true, it is just myself trying to simulate for you and story without actually telling the story.there is weirdness that is balanced, other wise it suggests collusion. there is weirdness that is not balanced. as such being cautious is reasonable. the actual story didnt directly happen to mine self, but to the woman i live with. in the full story there is enough detail that if i said it, you would have enough information to be able to walk up to my life. numbers were 313.

"And no man hath ascended up to heaven, but he that came down from heaven, even the Son of man which is in heaven." John 3:13

x.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X_2IdybTV0
ps,
g, it would be fun to make and funny youtube.

[ju4o]

pdi (interesting)

I was wondering if the numbers which occur in your story might be the numbers which G didn't guess.  Out of the rng numbers (2,30,30,31,37,45) G guessed 2,37,45 leaving 30,30,31 wandering forlornly around unclaimed.  Buffetted by the winds of psychospace, miserably unguessed.

So maybe they could have found a happy roosting place in your story.

In which case, 313 is pdc.

[Mr X]

Buffetted by the winds of psychospace, miserably unguessed.

that is very poetic.

i dont know about the happy numbers roosting theory. in reference to #46, the only time she has looked at what she once called "forum 4 nerds", was to look at the pdc of an z post, and to watch an major tom space tupe from g. she doesnt know about secret business and otherwise has no connection to the f4 system. if anything the 313 was and relief, showing it was random frakking coincidence. the weird part was the name the stranger was looking for, if there is such and thing as and bad omen, the name was an bad omen. traditional anti name. bad news for everyone. she has fallen ill. she will survive.

the 313
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9di8PwlxYTs

mr x.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoQuVnKhxaM

[Mr G]

Mr J, would you elaborate on the concept of psychospace?

X, I watched that movie over the weekend and I thought it was excellent. I'm not scared of our robot overlords (yet), but let's see what comes.

Exciting times...

[ju4o]

I would love to but (perhaps risking seeming to over-react) I'm tending to think the priority is to try to deal with the existential crisis which the forum has been thrown into, when I said 'borderline incredible' I was not joking.

[Mr G]

Yes okay but maybe you could talk about two things at the same time. It sounds like an interesting idea and I know you're not usually the kind of person that just makes something up because it might sound cool (unlike me). If it was just a throwaway line, that's fine, but I thought it was interesting anyway. "Psychosphere" also has a nice ring to it.

To the point, do you really think it was "borderline incredible"? I have serious difficulty with these things, I can't tell anymore what is incredible and what isn't. Maybe I've grown so used to coincidences like this that it has become uninteresting, and maybe that's the really incredible thing. Or maybe it just isn't incredible at all. Plus, you said borderline anyway. An outside observer would just say "lucky guess", and then point out all the irregularities with our experimental technique.

Please believe me, I have seen enough incredible things to make me default to belief in the supernatural. But I'm not sure I can trust my own judgment. The number guessing didn't seem strange at all to me. What seems stranger to me is the little coincidences I have around what we discuss here, but I don't even report them anymore. It seems boring. Give me your honest opinion of this:

1. I PVR an old South Park episode (S16E04, Jewpacabra), time stamped 23:40, Thu 21 May.
2. I watch it Friday 22 May, it's about passover and includes a hallucination of God killing the Egyptian first-born sons.
3. I'm struck by it, it seems ridiculous (as intended by the writers) and leaves me with an uneasy feeling about religion. It's memorable.
4. 23 May, Mr X posts reply #64 in this thread, mentions "numbers were 313", then quotes John 3:13 as a little in-joke.
5. I figure, surely the most appropriate bible quote will be Numbers 3:13. I look it up:

Because all the firstborn are mine; for on the day that I smote all the firstborn in the land of Egypt I hallowed unto me all the firstborn in Israel, both man and beast: mine shall they be: I am the LORD.

6. I go: "Hmmm..."

Well, I don't even know anymore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O0A_NEt_c8
(A little clip from the show)

[ju4o]

Hi G, no probs with any of that.  Your story, unlike X's, is unproblematically credible, I think.  Maybe a key difference is that your story does not monkey with the laws of probability, whereas his does.

[Mr X]

hello,

g, i generally think the same. as the syncs pile up reporting them becomes and chore. it becomes normalized that they happen more, so they become less interesting.

then there is the effect or result of not reporting, or reporting. say i have syncs about avacados. i dont report as it seems stupid to dedicate and ramble to avacados. then other people start making sync reports about avacados. then i come along with "oh yeah avacados, i have syncs with them". it is not and perfect system. another example would be if after round 1 numbers were revealed, someone comes along and says "i didnt post my guess but that was my guess". what to think then.

the little coincidences are the interesting thing, thought the numbers are not entirely uninteresting.

our thoughts diverge around the default belief in the supernatural. not being sure in trusting ones on judgement seems and overall healthy and cautiously skeptical view. this is something i have thought about. i dont have and good answer. the two options seem to be beliefing in something, or operating based on facts. and with the supernatural facts are hard to come by. how do we explore the supernatural. do we have to take small steps in belief, small steps in facts, combination, i dont know so i am asking. i probably should have and default belief in it. due to thread based introspection, i seem to want to belief in it as much as i want to not belief in it.

j, i may of asked for it. and by participating so did you. i would like to hear both your description an analysis of pyschospace and the monkeying of probability. what is the probability that of the pre emptive dream numbers of g, the "miss x" who was set to pick 3 numbers, picked 2 of those by g. she was very ill when choosing the numbers. which will soon be fixed with antibiotics.

round 2 seems to be broken already. we can still go through the motions. most likely i will just put and password on and zip file at this point. the image and 3 numbers. how do i distribute the file ? email or can it be uploaded to f4. for round three we need and better system.

it gets curious and curiouser mr j. so much is unsaid it can be added layer upon layer in retrospect.

x

g, i have been watching this show the past few late nights while nursing and sick person. just something to take the mind off things. nice little supernatural and classic monster mash up tales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFXHfEqMcis
normally tales such as this are more to her taste
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOVF1dSFhqk

[ju4o]

Psychospace is the space where psychic things happen.

what is the probability that of the pre emptive dream numbers of g, the "miss x" who was set to pick 3 numbers, picked 2 of those by g.

Nearly 2% (i.e. a chance of 1 in about 50).

Here is the working:

First we consider the case where Miss X has one guess, and then we expand that to the case where she has 3 guesses.

To calculate the chance of guessing (in one guess) any of 4 numbers randomly chosen in the range (1...50), the easiest way is to calculate the chance of guessing wrong, and then to subtract that from 1.

The chance of guessing wrong is the chance that her guess is not the first number, and that it is not the second, and that it is not the third, and that it is not the fourth.  Which is, (49/50) to the power of 4.  Which is about 0.9224

i.e. there is an about 92% chance that her single guess is wrong.  Thus there is an about 8% chance that it is right.

Now we consider the fact that she has three guesses.

It's easy to see the chance of all 3 being wrong: it is 92% cubed, which is about 78%.  Likewise, the chance of all 3 guesses being right is 8% cubed, which is about .05% (i.e. a chance of 1 in about two thousand).

The chance of exactly one guess being right is the chance that her first guess is right and the other two are wrong, plus the chance that her middle guess is right and the other two are wrong, plus the chance that her last guess is right and the other two are wrong.  That is 3 times 8% times 92% squared, which is about 20% (i.e. a chance of 1 in about five).

Likewise, the chance of exactly two guesses being right is the chance that her first guess is wrong and the other two are right, plus the chance that her middle guess is wrong and the other two are right, plus the chance that her last guess is wrong and the other two are right.  That is 3 times 92% times 8% squared, which is about 1.8% (i.e. a chance of 1 in about 57).

Putting this all together, and expressing it (for convenience) in terms of Miss X repeating her 3-guess experiment 2000 times, we find the likelihood that

she would get none right about 1560 times (i.e. 78% chance)
she would get one right about 400 times (i.e. 20% chance)
she would get two right about 36 times (i.e. 1.8% chance)
she would get three right about 1 time (i.e. .05% chance)

Note as a double-check that 1560 plus 400 plus 36 plus 1 equals (approx) 2000

(actually it equals 1997; the difference is due to rounding error which we could reduce if we used more decimal places).

So in summary, Miss X would get 2 or more out of 3 guesses right about 37 times out of 2000

which is nearly 2%, or slightly less than a chance of 1 in 50

HTH (hope that helps).

So did she actually do that?  If you say 'yes' I probably won't believe you.  Wishing good luck with the antibiotics.

[Mr X]

hello mr j,

very interesting.
the range of round 2 was 1 in 30, not 1 in 50.

lack of range in round 2 is and criticism. i think the ordered sequence complicates things enough that the high probability of guessing an individual number matters less.

her numbers were
2
28
12
there is also the messy number 15, messy enough we can discard it

i honestly do not care if you belief me or not. i do not care about looking good or being cool or adding value to myself. i want to explore the supernatural, i would like it if you were to help me. from my view i need to belief in you and the others somehow.
x.

[ju4o]

"i honestly do not care if you belief me or not. i do not care about looking good or being cool or adding value to myself."

Very good but isn't that the wrong way round?  Me not believing you is a problem for me not a problem for you.

Anyway I've re-done the calcs for a range of (1...30).  The resulting likelihoods are as follows, expressed in terms of 2000 trials for easy comparison with previous post:

MsX would get none right about 1330 times (i.e. 66.5% chance)
she would get one right about 580 times (i.e. 29% chance)
she would get two right about 84 times (i.e. 4.2% chance)
she would get three right about 4 times (i.e. .2% chance)

and thus in summary she would get 2 or more out of 3 guesses right about 88 times out of 2000

which is nearly 4.5 percent, or about 1 chance in 23.  Not so outlandish as before but still in the uplands of incredibility when put in context with round 1.